Trump's leverage over Putin in Ukraine peace talks: A delicate balance of carrots and sticks
Kumar Shivam | Mar 13, 2025, 02:07 IST
( Image credit : AP )
As Ukraine and the US push for a 30-day ceasefire in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, questions arise about the leverage that former US President Donald Trump may wield in persuading Vladimir Putin to consider a halt to hostilities. Despite Russia’s ongoing military advances, Trump’s potential influence in the negotiations centers on offering incentives rather than punitive measures, such as sanctions. However, key factors, including Ukraine’s territorial integrity and NATO membership, complicate the path to peace.
Ukraine has agreed to support a US-backed 30-day ceasefire in the ongoing war with Russia. This move has placed pressure on Moscow to consider the proposal, though Russia remains cautious about committing without clear guarantees. While there is optimism in Washington, the Kremlin has insisted that discussions with the US need to be more detailed before agreeing to any truce. Despite significant military losses and economic strain, Russia continues to hold a strong position in the negotiations, citing the ongoing territorial advances made by its forces.
The leverage Trump might have over Putin in these talks lies more in offering economic incentives than enforcing punitive measures. While sanctions have already severely impacted Russia, Trump could offer relief in areas like banking restrictions and access to Western technology. His past interactions with Russia suggest a different diplomatic approach than the current US administration, and these potential economic rewards could influence Putin’s willingness to consider a ceasefire, despite Russia’s advantageous military position.
Although US sanctions have significantly damaged Russia’s economy, they have not been sufficient to force Moscow into a corner. Russian exports to the US have dropped sharply, and existing banking sanctions have already limited Russia’s access to financial resources. Further sanctions might not have the desired effect, especially without strong international backing. The US could, however, consider offering to lift some sanctions—particularly those that affect Russia's energy sector—as a way to entice Moscow toward peace talks.
Trump’s potential leverage through increased military support to Ukraine is a double-edged sword. While this could push Putin to negotiate, it remains Trump’s least favored option, especially after the temporary suspension of military aid to Kyiv. Moreover, the heart of the negotiations lies in Ukraine’s territorial integrity and NATO aspirations. Putin’s demand that Ukraine not join NATO and that it cede territory, particularly Crimea, remains a non-starter for Ukraine and its European allies, complicating the path to any lasting peace deal.