NASA’s asteroid 2024 YR4 keeps changing its odds of hitting Earth in 2032 as new data rolls in

Asteroid 2024 YR4, an object between 130 and 300 feet in size, has been the subject of intense scrutiny since its discovery. Initially, NASA estimated that the asteroid had a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. This led to widespread media coverage, with the object becoming the first to be classified as a level 3 on the Torino scale—a measurement used to assess asteroid impact risks. However, just days later, new data from ground-based telescopes helped refine the asteroid's orbit, leading to a dramatic reduction in its projected risk. By February 22, NASA’s new estimate dropped the chance of impact to just 0.28%, or about 1 in 360. While the odds of an impact are now lower, these fluctuations are a normal part of the process as astronomers continue to gather more data.
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale, created by astronomer Richard Binzel, is the tool that helps translate the uncertainty surrounding asteroids into a more understandable risk assessment for the public. Ranging from 0 (no hazard) to 10 (certain collision), this color-coded scale provides an easy way to communicate asteroid risks. When 2024 YR4 was initially classified as a level 3, it fell into the yellow zone, indicating a moderate risk that warranted attention but no immediate cause for alarm. As its impact probability decreased, the asteroid's classification also dropped, a common occurrence as scientists refine their understanding. The scale’s purpose, Binzel explained, is to give both the public and governments a better sense of how seriously to take the threat, based on what’s known at any given moment.So why do the chances of an asteroid impact keep changing? It all comes down to how much information astronomers have at any given time. In the case of 2024 YR4, its trajectory and size were initially unclear, which led to wide-ranging risk estimates. As more telescopic observations were made—particularly on February 19 and 20, 2025—scientists were able to refine their models, leading to more accurate predictions. According to Binzel, this situation is common when tracking near-Earth asteroids. He likens it to trying to predict where a fly ball will land in a baseball game—initial predictions may be off, but with more observations, the outcome becomes clearer. For now, astronomers are continuing to monitor the asteroid closely, and the likelihood of a collision remains low, but it’s too early to rule it out completely.
When Richard Binzel first introduced the Torino scale, he wanted to create a tool that would help communicate asteroid risks to the public, much like the Richter scale does for earthquakes. However, when he proposed it in 1997, the system wasn’t widely accepted. It wasn’t until 1999, after a close call with asteroid 1997 XF11, that the Torino scale gained traction within the astronomical community. The scale was designed to convey not just the likelihood of a collision but also the level of uncertainty in the risk assessment. This uncertainty is something that scientists must balance carefully when communicating with the public. In the case of 2024 YR4, as the odds of impact fluctuate, the goal is to maintain transparency without causing unnecessary panic. Binzel himself notes the fine line between sharing what’s known and what might cause undue stress, emphasizing the importance of providing context and keeping people informed without fostering fear.