Ishiba heads to Washington to revive Trump-Abe bond amid rising tensions with China and North Korea

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s upcoming three-day visit to Washington is under close scrutiny, as he seeks to continue the strong bilateral relationship Japan maintained with the United States during Shinzo Abe's tenure. When Trump took office in 2017, Abe was quick to cultivate a personal rapport with the then-new president, famously gifting him a gold-plated golf club and ensuring that the Japan-US alliance remained solid, despite Trump’s earlier threats to withdraw US troops from Japan unless the country increased its financial contribution. Abe’s diplomacy worked, and the relationship flourished, with both leaders bonding over golf and hamburgers during Trump’s 2017 visit to Asia.

Ishiba, who steps into Abe’s shoes after his assassination in 2022, faces a different challenge. Unlike Abe, Ishiba is not known for his charismatic, personable style of diplomacy, and his quiet, cautious demeanor might be a stark contrast to Trump’s larger-than-life personality. However, Ishiba is hoping to achieve similar results by securing key commitments from Trump on regional security, trade, and Japan’s growing defense spending. In particular, Ishiba will look for clear assurances from Trump that the United States will continue to defend Japan in the face of growing threats from China over the disputed Senkaku Islands and North Korea’s expanding nuclear program.

Despite Trump’s more transactional approach to foreign policy, Ishiba comes prepared to offer tangible steps, such as Japan’s commitment to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, a move that will likely involve purchasing US-made military hardware. Additionally, Japan has been a key investor in the US economy, and Ishiba intends to highlight these ties, emphasizing Japanese companies’ contributions to job creation and investment, such as the $44 billion gas pipeline project in Alaska.

Ishiba’s visit is fraught with significant challenges, especially in balancing Japan’s security concerns and economic interests. One of the key topics will be the escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait and Japan’s security concerns vis-à-vis China’s growing military assertiveness. Ishiba is expected to seek reassurances from Trump that the US will continue its strong military and diplomatic support in the region, which is crucial not just for Japan’s defense but for maintaining stability across East Asia. Japan’s long-standing commitment to the US as a regional ally has been an essential pillar of its post-WWII foreign policy, and Ishiba will seek to reaffirm that this commitment is unwavering.

However, with Japan running a $56 billion trade surplus with the US, Ishiba will also need to tread carefully in addressing Trump’s ongoing tariffs and the threat of an escalating trade war. Trump has previously targeted China, Mexico, and Canada with tariffs, but Japan is not immune to potential economic pressure, especially if Trump decides to implement tariffs to bring down the trade imbalance. Ishiba will likely argue that Japan has been a responsible trading partner, investing heavily in the US, but he will also have to be ready to make compromises on trade issues to maintain the positive relationship.

Ishiba’s balancing act will be further complicated by the internal political dynamics of Japan. As a member of the scandal-ridden Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Ishiba’s domestic standing is fragile, and his handling of the relationship with Trump will be closely watched. Any signs of excessive deference to Trump could lead to criticism at home, particularly from political rivals within the LDP.

The outcome of Ishiba’s diplomatic meeting with Trump carries significant risks for his political future. While the Prime Minister has enjoyed support from the LDP’s more conservative factions, his leadership has been questioned amid internal party divisions and scandals. Ishiba’s critics may argue that he is too cautious and not assertive enough on the international stage, while his supporters will expect him to leverage his visit to strengthen Japan’s position on security and trade. The Prime Minister’s political future could hinge on how successfully he navigates the intricacies of Japan-US relations under Trump’s presidency, especially as he faces pressure from both domestic and international stakeholders.

Ishiba's meeting with Trump is already being scrutinized by domestic media, who will closely observe Trump’s tone, body language, and any signs of personal rapport between the two leaders. Should the meeting fall short of delivering concrete commitments from Trump, or if Ishiba fails to assert Japan’s interests firmly, he could face political repercussions at home. In particular, there will be intense scrutiny over whether Ishiba addresses contentious issues, such as Trump’s decision to withdraw from the World Health Organization and the Paris climate agreement, both of which have been a point of tension in Japan-US relations. Additionally, the state of the global economy and trade negotiations could influence how Japan’s domestic politics perceive the success or failure of Ishiba’s diplomatic efforts.

At the same time, Ishiba’s diplomatic trip could mark the beginning of a new chapter in Japan-US relations, where Japan's security and economic priorities are reaffirmed under a president with a distinctly transactional approach to foreign policy. Ishiba will be expected to navigate these challenges carefully, balancing the expectations of Trump, the Japanese public, and the broader international community. The outcome of this meeting could have lasting implications for both Japan's standing on the global stage and Ishiba’s ability to retain political power at home.