Nearly three decades later, Baltic Nations cut final electricity ties with Russia

Nearly three and a half decades after breaking away from the Soviet Union, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are poised to sever their last remaining electricity connections with Russia and Belarus. This move marks a historic shift, solidifying their alignment with European Union allies and reinforcing energy independence.

The decision carries deep geopolitical and symbolic significance. Efforts to disconnect from Russian energy have intensified since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, further straining Moscow’s relations with the EU.

“This is the final physical disconnection from the last remaining element of our reliance on the Russian and Belarusian energy system,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said in a recent interview.

A ceremony featuring EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other dignitaries will take place on Sunday, coinciding with the countdown on a specially designed 29.5-foot clock in downtown Vilnius, marking the end of the Baltic states’ electricity ties to Russia.

The three nations, all NATO members, have maintained a tenuous relationship with Russia since gaining independence in 1990. Tensions have only escalated following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Over the years, 16 power lines linking the Baltic states with Russia and Belarus have been dismantled in favor of a new grid connecting them to the EU. This includes underwater cables running through the Baltic Sea.

On Saturday, all remaining transmission lines between the Baltic countries and Russia, Belarus, and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad will be shut down one by one. The region, which lacks land ties to mainland Russia, has already established its own power generation capacity, according to Lithuania’s electricity transmission system operator, Litgrid.

For 24 hours, the Baltic Power System will operate in an “island mode.” The following day, it will be integrated into the Continental European and Nordic grids through connections with Finland, Sweden, and Poland.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that the move had been long planned. He assured that Russian energy operators had taken necessary steps to ensure smooth operations on their side.

“This decision was announced a long time ago, requiring both our and their energy companies to act accordingly,” Peskov said. “We have ensured that our unified energy system will remain stable.”

The Baltic nations, which share a combined 1,015-mile border with Russia and Belarus, formally notified Moscow and Minsk of their plans in July. They have credited 1.2 billion euros ($1.25 billion) in EU and other support for enabling their synchronization with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area.

“Lithuania has worked tirelessly for 30 years to gain energy independence,” Nausėda said. “Three years ago, we stopped purchasing any energy resources from Russia. This was our response to the war in Ukraine.”

Despite advance notice, the Baltic states remain vigilant for potential retaliation. Litgrid has warned that the risk of cyberattacks remains substantial, emphasizing the need for collaboration, defensive measures, and enhanced cybersecurity to counter potential threats.

Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa also acknowledged the possibility of provocations but reassured that Latvia is well-prepared. “There are risks, but we understand them well,” Siliņa said. “We have identified these threats and have contingency plans in place.”

Following the announcement of disconnection plans, misinformation campaigns surfaced both online and in city streets, falsely warning of impending blackouts, severe energy shortages, and skyrocketing electricity prices.

“We’ve heard these rumors before, but we are accustomed to such tactics,” said Jolanta Karavaitienė, a retired teacher from Vilnius. “Given the geopolitical situation, there is no reason for us to remain tied to Russia’s energy grid.”

Some citizens, however, are taking extra precautions. Estonia’s public broadcaster, ERR, reported a surge in generator sales, with appliance retailers noting a spike in demand compared to the previous year.

The Baltic nations’ journey toward energy independence has spanned decades. In 2003, ahead of EU membership, Lithuania agreed to shut down the Soviet-built Ignalina nuclear power plant due to safety concerns. The plant was fully decommissioned in 2009.

Lithuania also constructed an offshore oil terminal in the Baltic Sea in 1999. By 2006, it became the country’s sole crude oil import point after Russia abruptly cut off pipeline supplies.

Rokas Masiulis, CEO of Litgrid, recalled how past Russian actions, including abrupt price hikes and supply halts, shaped Lithuania’s energy policies. “Lithuania has suffered greatly from Russian energy manipulations,” he said. “But today, we have more than enough electricity capacity, including growing solar and wind power resources. We are secure.”

Masiulis noted that the disconnection benefits both sides. “This move isn’t necessarily bad for them or for us,” he explained. “We were interconnected and interdependent, but now, we simply go our separate ways.”

The Baltic nations have made significant investments in rebuilding power lines and restructuring their energy networks to integrate with the West. “Russia’s aggressive actions pushed us to act,” Masiulis said. “Yes, we faced higher oil and gas prices, but we built alternative routes. Now, we are in a much stronger position than before.”

“Perhaps Russia intended to harm us,” he added. “But in the end, everything worked out in our favor.”